tv The Willis Report FOX Business December 31, 2012 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
>> the charge extra for that. >> i see. really quickly the god as announced that she will provide free counseling fourth hand on her next work. >> through games, therapy. >> free counseling. >> forget kim kardashian. i think she is a real artist. she really does good work. she takes care of her mother and father. >> was free counseling? >> they feel safe talking in a safe environment. >> good for her. adam: one-stop counseling. it's kind of like drive through counseling. >> it would give the kids start to. >> i'm going to give you the last word. >> good to her parents. >> good to her parents. >> that's all the "money" we have for you on this new year's eve. have a happy new year. ♪
gerri: hello, everybody. i'm gerri willis. we begin with breaking news. congress has run out the clock. there is no more time. we are of the fiscal cliff. tonight we will all begin the larger set of tax increases in american history. that is new year's to you from our elected officials. did i also mentioned you are getting a pay raise in the new year as well. all this could have been avoided if congress got its act together, but the doomsday option hit and the president set in motion. there is a chance of some sort of deal, but we have to wait until the new year. let's go directly to washington senior washington correspondent, peter barnes, with details of negotiations. >> reporter: still some pieces being negotiated tonight, particularly on the sequestration, those automatic spending cuts that are supposed to take effect on january 2nd.
about $100 billion. about half of that on the past -- defense department. still trying to work through the details of some democratic and republican side. it's unclear if there will actually get to a vote in the senate on that tonight, but they could if they work something out. otherwise we have the framework from sources familiar with these negotiations. here are some of the things that are on it. taxes would rise to return to the clinton error rates for families making over 450,000 year to may individuals making more than 400 to a back to the top rate of 36%. there would be a permanent fix to the alternative minimum tax, which is something that congress patches every year. it affects about 30 million people and is worth about 90 billion per year. that would get fixed permanently according to the sources. the estate tax would go from 35%
to 40% on the more than 5 million. those under 5 million would not get taxed at all. the deal also throws in extended jobless benefits for another year. again, they're trying to work on figuring out how to mitigate or delay these sequestration spending cuts. there is some talk about putting them off for a couple of months to give congress some time to really look into it in a more deliberative way and find some spending cuts elsewhere. gerri: so, where is the fiscal austerity? where is then no spending? is seems to me like it's all about raising taxes. it's all about spending more money. there is no savings, no cutting back. >> well, senator mitch mcconnell , the republican leader in the senate has been negotiating with the vice-president on behalf of the president, mcconnell went to the floor to say that there will be
spending cuts down the road here . they had come to agreement on the tax part of this and wanted to get that passed and approved so that hundred million plus american families would not be facing a tax increase on january january 1st. it looks like that they will. we are going to go over the cliff, but congress is going to try to fix that in the next few days. he promised more spending cuts will come. remember, republicans do have the debt ceiling coming to. they have to approve an increase in the debt ceiling, probably by late february or early march, and that will be their leverage, they say. gerri: a perfect storm. thank you for telling his about it, coming on. good luck over this next 44 hours. it will be intense. meanwhile, as a nation we continue to change our way forward work toward another recession. without a deal u.s. gdp expected to take a serious hit.
our unemployment rate expected to skyrocket, but even with the deal some say the u.s. economy may fall. i am joined now by an economics professor for the university of maryland. welcome back to the show. i know you get pulled on this all the time by different groups. what are you expecting out of the economy? what do you say? with the deal what happens to the economy? without a deal what happens? >> some kind of deal, the economy continues to grow very slowly. we are doing all this spending to prop up the economy because the fundamentals are right. all of the things the obama administration has done have been anti growth, whether energy policy, trade with china, reregulation of wall street. and now this, taxing all those jobs creators, all those small businesses. i don't know why you would want to invest in this country now. gerri: let me ask you this. the congressional budget office has out its numbers.
if the fiscal cliff hits they say u.s. gdp would shrink by half a percentage point and that unemployment will rise to over 9%. do you think they have the rights or are they just too conservative? will it be worse? >> if we actually went over the cliff we would be subtracted from domestic demand over $600 billion. that is about four percentage points in gdp. most economists were forecasting in the first half of next year hardly 2 percent growth. if you subtract 4% to spending from that year and a recession that is much deeper. the cbo tense and not be alarmist because they say what they are partisan, but congress read it paycheck, and they don't want to say congress is being irresponsible and thrusting the economy into the next great depression. gerri: then know whether paycheck comes from. did you know that congress, the vice-president, the president are of getting pay increases that the president approved
. >> no credibility. i am on the government and the need help. gerri: you make a good point. if there is some kind of real resolution, can we see some kind of recovery in the economy? what the markets grade whatever deal comes out? i can't imagine -- i guess i'm just being negative. cutting entitlement spending in all the things we really need to do like making the tax system more fair and easy to understand you just cross your arms.
>> my body language. if we have this deal we will not get tax reform. we will not give genuine spending cuts because with this president to mike cutting down the republicans piece by piece a little bit at a time. this is their last stand outside atlanta. think of atlanta as american capitalism. if they give in tonight, if they give in on monday and pass these tax increases, the president will get what he wants. there will be deficit reduction, and the next president will inherit the kind of situation that today characterizes come by once a greece, too extreme, but i would say italy. holy irresponsible for any republican member of the house of representatives to vote for the package that mitch mcconnell is negotiating on their behalf without their leaders present. it is a ridiculous package. it does not work, and it will
solve our long-term debt problems. gerri: i never have to guess at what you think. you are always clear isabela and entertaining. thank you for coming out tonight. have a great new year. >> happy new year. gerri: no votes in the house tonight. meanwhile, we go off the cliff tomorrow. it does not applicable be a happy new year. our political panel place the blame game next. ♪ [hip-hop music] ♪ - ♪ what's wrong with the world, mama ♪ ♪ people livin' like they ain't got no mamas ♪ ♪ i think the whole world's addicted to the drama ♪ ♪ only attracted to the things that'll bring the trauma ♪ ♪ where is the love - ma'am. - [gasps] - you forgot your purse. - oh. thank you. thank you very much.
>> thank you so much. gerri: am i surprised by what is happening? no. and my interest? no. and so of start with you. how would you grade the president's lead on this issue today? >> well, i'm not trying to give anyone a good mark, the president by and certainly not congress. i hope my colleague in the spirit of the new year would recognize that the entire political establishment has let us down. we are going to get at best that deal on taxes, not going to get anything to reform entitlements or spending. in my question to you, do you think republicans in the house should vote for this deal? gerri: wait a minute. before you go to that i want to mention, we should acknowledge your that there is still a possibility the senate will vote on these ideas that we have described ad nauseam today about extending tax cuts for single ardors of 400,000 less couples,
families of 450,000 less, that could be voted on in the senate tonight. a couple of senators have said it could happen. anything could go. brad coming to you now. what is the lead like on this? how would you rate the president in particular? >> i have to give him a yes. many came to power in 2009 shortly thereafter put together a bipartisan commission on the debt with a charge to find out what the recommendation is to be for short-term and long-term debt. it is openly. we have spending decreases. we need to tackle entitlements. tough love for everyone. the president put on a show. he didn't like it. he was facing reelection. nothing was done. what to the house to in may of this year? the past a spending bill.
in order to avert the fiscal cliff and particularly sequestration and in august they pass a tax bill. the senate on but the bills, nothing. the same said he could not give us a subject. gerri: what to bring this up. the president at a press conference really sort of insulting republicans, hoping to come to agreement. listen to the president. >> my preference would have been to solve all these problems in the context of a larger agreement, a bigger deal, a grand bargain, whenever you want to call it. with this congress, that was obviously a little too much to hope for at this time. maybe we can do it in stages. we're going to solve this problem instead in several steps . gerri: he could have been a little more conciliatory.
>> i guess what i would say is, i would agree with him. i wish we did have a grand bargain. even brad he just will the when the democrats said we needed a grand bargain. certainly paul ryan and i don't know if you remember, he voted against it. plenty of blame to go around. add up think it makes sense to go after just the president. i think this is a failure of our leaders. quite compellingly over the last six months of so. gerri: could not agree with you more. i think everyone is the fault. i think there is this idea that we can bring along the tax hikes first. then come back later, perhaps months later to cutting spending. of course i think a lot of people say as seen this movie before and it does not end well. what do you say? >> there absolutely right. there should have been a comprehensive deal long time ago self created crises. the very people create a crisis can't bring themselves to fix it.
the american people are sick and tired. i'm really against the president because the president could have led a heck of a lot better than he has done. he has been an armchair quarterback. we don't need that. we need someone who is in days, but there certainly is enough blame to go around. the ultimate responsibility in my opinion lies with the president, and the president to date ducking his thumb in the eyes of congress in a stand-up comedy routine is not going to help the process, especially when we are in the 11th hour. gerri: i want to talk briefly about the fact that we, you know, the deadline is going to come and go. if we were to get a bill, which is, you know, questionable at this point, to go through both houses, it seems to me there is no way to contain everything that we want to see. thoroughgoing tax reform, i entitlement reform. it's too much to handle this point. is there any reason to think that congress will ever be able to deal with the big issues?
>> well, as we sit here today at thing not only is there plenty of blame to go around, there's plenty of reason to be pessimistic. i would share the view and certainly your view that what we need is a big deal. i think we would have done better. at think is still a good framework. we need the president engaged. many the congressional leaders engaged. sadly, this process, whenever produces, is going to be too little too late. i hope we avoid sequestration, but bottom line, we are still in a pickle and i think the economy is going to feel the effect. gerri: we are in a pickle. i agree. thank you for coming on. have a great new year's. >> youtube. gerri: coming up next, the fiscal cliff into plain english or maybe just simple arithmetic. at the bottom of the york, what should investors expect? will the fiscal ) as of them? don't go away. ♪
gerri: there is a reason we call this segment back of the envelope. we try to explain in plain english some of the more complicated financial issues. the big issue today, the fiscal cliff. and you may be asking yourself, why is this so important? what is so cataclysmic about our nation's finances that we need to implement these monster tax increases and make draconian spending cuts. well, if you want to understand
the government and its problems, take a look at these numbers. let's start with tax revenue. these are the nation's tax revenues. what you have your is just over 2 trillion in income. that's all it is really. and look at these euros. a very big number. the spending in the federal budget. you will notice to these numbers bigger than that. not good. the deficit, like how much debt or adding. over a trillion. just when you're. federal government running a a tab of a trillion. we talk about this number of the time. let's get this zero's again. a very big number. tough to get your arms around these numbers. when you see it on a piece of paper it's easier. i thought it would be even easier if we thought about one american household. what if each of those numbers translate it into one family.
if you ran the household like the federal government here is what you would be looking at. your family income, 24,400. your spending, 305,400. look at this. what's going on? you can't do this. if you were spending 35,000 only had 24,000 coming in, that's a nightmare. the new debt would be 10,900. it's a nightmare. so let's talk about your total credit card debt. if you were on par with the federal government your total debt would be $163,000. you're not even earning 25,000. you would be in huge trouble. you would be insolvent. i would call you a deadbeat. of course you're too smart to do something this stupid. capitol hill is not, and that is what the fiscal cliff is so very important because they're spending so much more money than they're taking in, running into debt that we are going to have to pay for down the road.
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place. people earning less than that will get a reprieve and not have to pay higher taxes. it would also put in place at two month delay on the sequestered. that is an increase in spending on defense. we could get as in a bill tonight. you will continue to follow the story as it breaks. we're following every twist and turn because it means so much to your wallet. meanwhile, the stock market rallying today on the last day of trading for 2012. the dow. largely on the fiscal cliff. ending the year up 7% which begs the question where we had in 2013 and how you should position yourself. here with their own outlook, one more bullish than the other, editor of money news all to the wealth report and portfolio manager. all-star with you.
>> i think stocks are going to head higher in 2013. i think a lot of other countries will possibly do better than we will hear in the u.s. our earnings are priced pretty fairly. stocks are not undervalued or overvalued. they are undervalued in places like china and india. at think that's where lot of the money will go. we will go up in u.s. stock market, but we will see even bigger percentage rises in both china and india. gerri: all right. when you look at this the thing folks are seeing a $600 billion hit to the economy. higher taxes, lower government spending. gerri: we are probably going to see amid cycle slowdown. importantly valuations are not that attractive. the bond market is really in a bowl. stocks are up 20-25% depending upon which markey looking at. we would say in 2013 whereas in 2012 the issue was still be --
guard against not being optimistic enough. we think in 20131 must guard against being too optimistic. gerri: oh boy. to you. has there been a little complacency in the market? will we have seen is the market's trading down on fiscal cliff talk that has been moving on that. you're bullish. where do you think the stocks will be rising on? we will be the news that will compel the stocks higher. >> love it is really the healing of the global economy. now that you are starting out of china and india stabilize the head higher, that will help pull the global economy up. that has really been the job of the u.s. they have been carrying the baton. now this point to be china and india. i think as you see things zealand head higher there that will improve global sentiment. gerri: you have an outlook on what investors should do. talk about changing asset
allocation, redefining what constitutes safety. >> the first thing is we would use this complacency we are experiencing in the optimism to take profits for risk assets. we think one should be about 20% in cash. and we would redefine, we believe because of the bubble in bonds that safe investments. but other things that are traditionally considered to be safe like utility stocks and reit, things that are really dependent upon the cost of long-term money, we think durable. gerri: volatility can be your friend. >> because down or volatility can create buying a virginities if you are positioned for a. buy things lower. buy low and sell high. gerri: that is always the case. to you as you lookkat this market going forward. we just showed these numbers. up 13% on nasdaq at 17.
what is interesting about this is that i don't believe that a lot of people really know that that kind of move has been had. allow the people of mr. because there have been too nervous about stocks, have not want to the plate. do you think it's possible to get in the markets and have yet another unpleasant stocks experienced? >> at think the markets will continue to head higher. think it will come and a little bit late to the game. they will miss a lot of the greatest gains to be had because sometimes people think the stock movement always follows economic movement. as you can see from the last juror to, that hasn't been the case. gerri: that is absolutely right. do you think the economy can continue to expand? what is your crystal ball telling you? >> we don't have a crystal ball. we think is too much debt and demographics, not favorable and the western world. the developing world is experiencing a slowdown. we would wait for our pitch right now and not rush into this market. gerri: move to a beach
somewhere. that's clearly what needs to happen. thank you for coming on. happy new year. have a great night. >> thanks. gerri: happy new year to you. now we want to know what you think. here's our question. will 2013 be better or worse for your wallet? log on, vote on the right-hand side of the screen in a show the results. and coming up later in the show, a look at who came out on top in the 2012 tech work. and even if this sequestrationn3 is avoided for now, could our national security still be addressed? last former u.n. ambassador john bolton next. there he is. stay with us.
gerri: we have been saying, congress will not need the midnight deadline to avert the fiscal cliff. congress will not. the negotiations continue into tomorrow. let's bring in a congressman who will be critical to the process. republican of wisconsin, a member of the house budget committee. welcome back to the show. great to see you here. first, breaking news detail i want to get your reaction to. we just heard the vice-president will meet with senate democrats tonight. what do you think that's about? >> i'm not exactly sure. unless they're having some type of problem with the spending side of the equation, i never have reached some type of agreement on taxes, but i know that makes mcconnell was working with vice-president biden on the spending side. and so there may be some person that has to go on the senate democrats to get the bill passed
gerri: arm-twisting everywhere. let's talk about this potential deal as it has been outlined to us. we would have tax hikes on folks with incomes above 400,000 if your single, above water and 50,000 if you're a couple. permanent patch to anc, the alternative minimum tax. estate tax also. 40 percent for states with 5 million more. going way below that level. jobless benefits extended for a year. can you live with the deal like that? >> if that is all it is in there is no spending cuts than it is not the balanced approach to the president has promised the american people, and so it will be difficult for me to vote for. there are some good permanent things in the tax code related to all the rates below the 404 under 50,000 level. at&t fixes are good. but without any spending cuts on here, if it's just a revenue driven package so the president
and spend more money will be a tough sell in the house of representatives. gerri: as we understand their is a big discussion going on about sequestration. 6790 days. what do you make of that? >> we have been hearing that they are trying to either delayed or get rid of it. as you are aware, theehouse has already passed an alternative plan for sequestration. if the plan is to eliminate sequestration as a nonstarter in the house, and however, there is a replacement or they just need additional time, i think that might be something that could be talked about. gerri: the president has been pretty outspoken saying republicans are holding a process. one you to respond to his comments. >> keep in mind that just last month republicans in congress said it would never agree to raise tax rates on the wealthiest americans. obviously the agreement is currently being discussed to raise those rates and raise them permanently. gerri: what do you make of that? >> partially correct. a little surprising that he is
blaming republicans and the deal. the president likes to talk about abraham lincoln and how he acts as if he thinks abraham lincoln is the best president ever in his son much like an. he forgets a ramekins most famous line. malice for nine and charity for all. can learn some things. gerri: one of the things i found interesting about this process is that we seem to be talking about tax tax now and spending cuts later. al does that go over? >> that does not fly with me and all. this is the problem and what has happened all throughout the last 40 years. politicians in washington had promised the american people that will get their fiscal house in order, cut spending. for every time they raise taxes and spending cuts never come. the promise of spending cuts comes, but the spending cuts never happen. and so that this time the president himself has said he wants a balanced approach, and a balanced approach this means
revenue and spending on the table. we are anxious to see what the spending side is. where's the other balance? gerri: on the budget committee, right in the thick of things. he think there will be some kind of agreement struck in these last few remaining hours? >> i think the agreement, if there is one, will start in the senate. they have not voted on anything, so we don't know. the majority leader has told us we're going back in session tomorrow after the noon hour. and so i am assuming we will be dealing with the issue tomorrow sometime during the day. i don't think we're going to get a deal tonight because the senate has not been able to act. gerri: it sounds like you are a big no vote. >> right now. of want to be a yes. they just need to work a little harder. gerri: they will have to do more to give you did change my mind. thank you for coming on. a pleasure having you on the show. >> same to you. gerri: thank you.
$500 billion is how much it will cost our defense department if we go over the cliff. with more on what this means for national security former united nations ambassador john bolton joins me now. welcome back to the show. great to have you here. what do you see as the impact of these cuts? sequestration on the defense spending. >> these $500 billion in cuts in sequestration will bring on top of something very close to a trillion dollars of defense cuts the first obama term. the extra cuts really go well beyond muscle. we are into bone. defense secretary panetta has made that clear. in the president's own defense secretary saying that our defense capabilities are being cut unacceptably, you know that is bad. and let me just say, this is not a matter of been counting. this goes to the ability of
america to sustain the international order that our economy rests on. you're not going to have sustained prosperity in the united states if the united states can provide whatever minimal order there is in the world today. that's the direction we're heading in. gerri: what's going to happen as a practical matter, laos, people, a machine. what will get cut? >> if the sequestration goes through over the long term, obviously the worst thing that will happen will be our inability to procure the sophisticated and expensive weapons system that we need. in the short term on sure there will try personnel layoffs to mitigate the effect of it, but it is unpleasant either way. people say these expensive weapons systems from a you don't need them. let me be very clear. i don't want the united states to ever be in a fair fight with anybody. i would much rather spend on advanced weapons systems to protect against american casualties.
the point here is if america is not perceived as strong, the risk of military hostilities increases. >> i want to switch gears a little bit and talk about the benghazi tax. i want to know how you would describe the ministrations approach to this. if you are satisfied with what has been done. the president and intelligent -- television interviews that he feels like doing a great job. your response? >> this is not a matter of technical fixes to an adequate security. the benghazi tragedy stems from a policy failure, a mistaken world view of the obama administration that the war on terror is essentially over, that they have been defeated, the arabs bring is bringing democracy in the middle east. the killings on september 11th prove that all of those points of view or wrong. the terrorist threat is still there. we are not dealing with it
adequately. i think sadly my prediction would be there are more benghazi's out there as long as we hold the view that president obama expresses. gerri: i have to ask you about hillary clinton. you have been unfairly critical of her recently. she, of course, has been in my. :. we have not seen her for weeks. now we understand why. she had a blood clot that she is being treated for. tell me with that knowledge in retrospect, what do you make of her disappearance? do you feel like maybe you were to martian your criticism? >> my point from the beginning has been there is a real lack of transparency year. whether they were understating the health problem or overstating the of problem, we still don't know, and she has been out public view for three weeks. when you are contemplating a presidential run, and she is, i must say, it doesn't do any good for your credibility not to be open and candid about this kind
of situation, and nobody wants her to have a health problem, but we expect honesty and openness from our political leaders. gerri: all right. thank you for coming on. appreciate your time. still to come to my "2 cents more" and delicate the winners and losers in the tech world in 2012 from apple to samsung. find that a camel on top and you had things to work on. that's right. stay with us. >> my new year's resolution is to finish my studies, master's program in graduate school. >> when he is the solution is to get in better shape. be a better person
gerri: well, as we say goodbye to 2012 and welcome in the new year, "the willis report" is taking a look back at some of the hottest companies in the tech world. postal we are giving you a sneak peek of groundbreaking gadgets that could hit store shelves in 2013. should you hold on to getting the iphone five are not? let's ask tech analyst. i want to start with instead of that iphone five issue, what you call the top deck winners of 2012. morrison mayor or meyer, i should say, she was a big winner >> absolutely. yes. really amazing how she has turned around young who, at
least its reputation in a very short time. when it started the year it had any ceo, scott thompson. people were skeptical and then they launched an ill-advised and war with facebook. a lot of ill will. they have arisen may issue, and he was out. they got birth to my area, and she is great ever since. the big differences everyone is rooting for her. actually want to have latched on to some of the better products. kind of a no-brainer. obviously the president of the united states, basically go on and the users can ask you questions. you answer more less in real time. that was a huge one. >> they definitely came out on top. a lot some pretty cool products this year. the global nexus' seven, the best android tablet of the year, and it sort of establish them as a bit of a hardware player.
their product search, maps, stronger than ever. >> amazon. >> still the leader. still the leader in terms of tablets. gerri: samsung. >> that was interesting. they obviously lost a big court case for apple this year, but they are leading the market. gerri: flops for the year. let's move on. the biggest flops for 2012 starting with apple. >> i would say is the biggest flop. they had a mixed year, but if i had to put them into the winner or loser, would have to say just because an apple maps. such a black guy and people were starting to see that this company is a little bit -- a little more fallible and is not. gerri: facebook. >> the ipo did not do that well and did not satisfy investors word users. they still seem to be having these privacy in transparency
issues. they have a lot of cleanup. gerri: microsoft. >> billingsly call. we didn't really know how that would go and it is also an early call because i don't think windows eight which is the big product launch to the end of the year has officially been a flop yet, but early signs is that they are not quite responding like it would have liked. they still do well in 2013. gerri: we'll know what the problem with that company is. >> they have not launched a new hardware along time and obviously are waiting for their new hardware launch next year. they seem to have lost so much ground in the meantime it will be kind of america. gerri: the biggest loser, sony. >> yes. and then you don't hear any more. the acquired their mobile alarm bell little over a year ago. made promises to innovate. none of that has happened, so maybe we will see what happens next month. gerri: we have to talk about what we teased.
the iphone five. tell me, should i not by a? >> it's a great product. the only problem is apple maps which is a key part of there mobile experience and how to get around. now that too will released bill will maps for the iphone. the original maps and the iphone. now that is back the iphone five is completing an. gerri: your okay. >> i'm okay. gerri: thank you for coming on. appreciate your time. have a great new year's. gerri: youtube. we'll be right back. ♪ - ♪ what's wrong with the world, mama ♪ ♪ people livin' like they ain't got no mamas ♪ ♪ i think the whole world's addicted to the drama ♪
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you are in a downward spiral. higher health care premiums come and thank you, president obama. toms is still unemployed. not in the union or union or government jobs coming in california i am a republican going fishing. [laughter] we also asked on gerriwillis.com. ninety-four presented he said things are worse. finally, a spoiler alert. congress is kicking the can down